What’s Actually Driving Ocean Freight Rates Right Now
Ocean freight rates on Asia-to-US trades are elevated. Three factors are driving it together.
Ocean freight rates are elevated right now. If you’re importing goods and wondering why, there are three things happening at once — and they’re reinforcing each other.
Blank Sailings
Blank sailings are cancelled voyages. When a carrier announces a blank sailing, that ship doesn’t sail on that route that week. Less capacity in the market means the carriers that do sail can charge more.
This isn’t an infrastructure crisis. The equipment exists. The ships exist. Carriers are strategically reducing capacity to maintain pricing power — the same playbook they have run during previous demand shocks. When volume is soft or uncertain and rates need support, blank sailings are how carriers manage the market. We are seeing elevated blank sailing rates on Asia-to-US trades right now.
Front-Loading Before July
The Section 122 import surcharge — the President’s 10% across-the-board levy — was set to expire July 24. Separately, the Trump administration opened a new Section 301 investigation in May 2026 covering sixteen countries, including Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, and others. That Section 301 investigation could produce new tariff mechanisms effective as early as late July, coinciding with Section 122’s expiration.
Importers who understand that timeline are pulling orders forward. If you’re going to face the same or higher tariffs in August, and you can afford to move inventory now, you move it now.
That front-loading is compressing demand into a shorter window, artificially spiking freight volume and spot rates. The importers front-loading right now are paying a freight premium today to avoid a potential tariff bill later. Some of them have the analysis to justify that trade-off. Some are guessing.
Bunker Fuel Costs
Fuel is a real cost that flows through to rates. Bunker surcharges — BAF, or Bunker Adjustment Factors — are standard in freight contracts and respond to oil prices. When fuel costs are elevated, the surcharges follow.
This is a background driver, not the lead story, but it is additive to the other two factors.
What This Means for Your Supply Chain
These three factors together — reduced supply from blank sailings, compressed demand from front-loading, and elevated fuel costs — are producing the rate environment you are seeing right now.
The question isn’t whether rates are high. They are. The question is what you do about it.
A few things worth discussing with your customs broker and freight team:
- If your cargo has timing or routing flexibility, there may be options worth modeling.
- If you’re front-loading, make sure your cash flow and warehouse capacity support the inventory position you’re building.
- If your supply chain has significant exposure to Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, or other Southeast Asia manufacturing hubs, the Section 301 investigation timeline is a planning input for Q3. That conversation should be happening now.
The customs and freight teams at Premio International and Falcone Global are running through these calculations daily. Background on the Section 122 ruling and appeal is on the blog. Reach out if you want to work through what the current rate environment means for your specific lanes.
About Us
Headquartered in Atlanta, GA, Falcone Capital Holdings, LLC is a global leader in international and domestic transportation and logistics. Falcone Capital Holdings operates across six continents through wholly owned subsidiaries and partner offices, and is synonymous with cutting-edge services across all modes of international and domestic transportation. The Falcone Companies are licensed, bonded and insured through all federal and state agencies including Customs and Border Protection, Federal Maritime Commission (FMC), Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), Transportation Security Administration (TSA) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and is a Tier 2 validated member of the Customs Trade Partnership against Terrorism (C-TPAT).